President Obama's $3.7 trillion fiscal year 2012 budget proposal in February 2011 was the genesis of the latest right-left federal budget battle. Republicans countered by passing Paul Ryan's (R-Wis) fiscal year 2012 budget in April 2011. The debt limit debate exacerbated the budget battle beginning what will be fifteen more months of intense discussion on federal spending and the economy as politicians enter the 2012 campaign season.
The arguments of both sides are simple. If left unchecked, the Left would continue on its ideological path of spending and borrowing while increasing taxes on job creators. The Right seeks to cut spending and lower taxes on job creators and other taxpayers.
Politics is perception so whichever party sells their vision better to the American voters will succeed in the 2012 elections. As of now, Republicans are in a better position than Democrats.
The 2012 elections will be a referendum on President Obama's political ideology and policies. When they controlled the executive and legislative branches of government, Democrats utterly misperceived that they had a mandate to expand government. Democrats never had a mandate to do so. The Democratic victories in 2006 and 2008 were more the result of frustration over the war in Iraq and Republicans increasing federal deficits than any other variable. The Left's naiveté about the reasons behind their 2006 and 2008 gains encouraged them to pursue spending policies that dramatically increased deficits.
November 2010 was a rebuke of the Democrats' spending fiasco. And unless they somehow change their immense-government ideology, 2012 will continue to reveal just how deep the disapproval of the Left's spending philosophy is.
Although public approval of Republicans and Democrats declined during the debt ceiling limit debate, Democrats will ultimately pay the larger price since voters connect them to government. This was evident to the Obama administration which is why it had to ensure that there wouldn't be another debt limit debate until after the 2012 elections. As the face of the Democrats and government, President Obama saw his approval rating plummet to 40 percent.
The Tea Party movement suffered severely from the debt ceiling limit debate as well seeing its unfavorable rating rise to 51 percent.
But the Tea Party movement has been successful in changing this discourse in America from big government stimulus packages to spending cuts and smaller government.
Former pollster for President Bill Clinton, Stanley B. Greenberg illustrated just how dire the situation is for Democrats in a July 30, 2011 article in the New York Times. Greenberg is a liberal pollster who works with left-leaning political parties and organizations to determine ways to expand the Left's agenda.
In the article, Greenberg stated that "In analyzing these polls in the United States, I see clearly that voters feel ever more estranged from government -- and that they associate Democrats with government... This distrust of government and politicians is unfolding as a full-blown crisis of legitimacy sidelines Democrats and liberalism. Just a quarter of the country is optimistic about our system of government -- the lowest since polls by ABC and others began asking this question in 1974. But a crisis of government legitimacy is a crisis of liberalism. It doesn't hurt Republicans." Voters are cynical about government and they don't believe the rhetoric of politicians will translate to effective change in government.
Greenberg provided some suggestions that Democrats should do to regain the trust of voters, but they are things that the ideology of the current Democratic leadership won't allow them to do. "My surveys show that voters want comprehensive immigration reform rather than half measures. They would like to see strong enforcement at the border and in the workplace, and the expulsion of troublesome undocumented immigrants. While favoring toughness, they also want to find ways to put undocumented workers on a path to citizenship," wrote Greenberg. For fear of losing part of the Latino vote, Democrats will not touch immigration reform that would increase enforcement at the border and in the workplace.
Greenberg's most compelling, and perhaps most damaging to Democrats, statement was "Finally, progressives have to be serious about reducing the country's long-term deficits, constraining special interest spending and tax breaks and making government accountable to the ordinary citizen. The deficit matters to people and has real meaning and consequences. A government that spends and borrows without the kind of limits that would govern an ordinary family is going to have big troubles. Voters I've studied say things like, if 'we keep spending like this, we're going to be bankrupt and there won't be anything for anybody,' especially 'our children.' The final straw is the government's decision to continue spending and to put the country deeper into debt and more dependent on China."
Voters understand that President Obama and the Democratic leadership in the legislative branch aren't serious about deficit reduction. The President's fiscal year 2012 $3.7 trillion budget proposal would have meant a $1.6 trillion deficit. Plus, the President originally requested a clean increase to the debt limit.
During the debt limit debate, the President's stance only changed when his approval rating began plummeting.
Although President Obama got his wish that the debt ceiling won't be debated again until after the 2012 elections, his spending ideology won't be out of the headlines. Fiscal year 2011 ends on September 30, 2011. There is not a fiscal year 2012 budget at this point. Debates over the 2012 budget may be just as intense as the debt ceiling debate. What will likely happen is Congress will pass a continuing appropriations resolution to fund the government in the short-term and keep the spending debate in the headlines through the 2012 election season. That's bad news for the President because during his tenure in office, the country has become more Conservative.
According to Gallup, the percentage of Americans who self identify as a Conservative has increased from 37% in 2007 to 41% in August 2011. The percentage of Americans who self identify as a Liberal has decreased from 22% in 2007 to 21% today.
The 2012 election cycle will be an intense debate about the future path on which America will either find fiscal responsibility or end up bankrupt. President Obama is expected to raise an unprecedented $1 billion. Since Obama can't run on his record, expect the 2012 election season to be perhaps the most negative in history. Given the Democrats' performance since 2009 and America's movement further right, Republicans may continue to change the face of government and the country's direction that they started in 2010.
